National & Kapodistiran University of Athens, School of Physical Education & Sport Sciences, 41 Ethnikis Antistasis Avenue, Athens, 17237, Greece
In Volleyball, complex 1 consists of pass-set-attack skills in this specified order. This sequence is a stable pattern to win a point. Furthermore, it is important for teams’ success. Taking into account that this pattern is a first-order Markov chain, the creation of a probability transition matrix is feasible. Assuming multinomial likelihood with a Dirichlet prior on the transition probabilities a Markovian transition matrix can be constructed, and the calculation of conditional success probabilities is, thus, achievable. Data from the performance analysis of the winning team from recent world championships in three age categories (U19, U21, Men) of male Volleyball is used. Evaluation of the pass through a six-level ordinal scale is possible after the validation of the entire scale. The findings lead to redefining target pass area and to shrinking the evaluation scale at least for the teams under study. Moreover, pass accuracy is necessary because it must give at least two options for attack, but not sufficient condition for the success of attack in all age categories for male Volleyball. In U19 age category, there is a lack of stabilization in the complex 1 sequence after pass against jump spin serve.
Keywords: Volleyball; pass; age categories; evaluation scale; Bayesian analysis; conditional probabilities.